by Kyle Stults on July 21, 2009
Sign of the Times – Swiss Watch Industry’s Woes Continue
As I predicted at the beginning of this year, (see: SIHH 2009 Ends Amidst Global Slump: Some Perspective on the “State of the Watch Industry) – “Now that times have changed and global economic growth is anemic and likely to remain so in the near term or longer, it is inevitable that the industry will experience a shakeout. In these times and conditions, there are too many brands chasing too few wallets (no matter how thick or thin those wallets are……Brands will fail and cease to exist. Others will be purchased by their bigger, stronger competitors who have the ability to withstand long term economic cycles. Consolidation is inevitable.”
A somewhat prescient (if not unfortunate) prediction, it now seems.
Continuing the sharp downturn that began at the end of 2008, Swiss watch exports were down 26.4% during the first half of 2009 according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, or FHS. Dismal. Exports have now receded to below 2006 levels with no sign of bottoming yet – in fact, although it is too early to know for sure, based on June export data, the rate of decline in exports may even be accelerating, as evidenced by June’09 figures down 31% vs June’08, a full 5% ahead of the 6 months number. All markets and price points are weak, particularly the U.S. (#2 export market behind Hong Kong) which registered a whopping 44% decline. Now while export data is not necessarily the same as end-user demand, and the U.S. has across many industries seen a tightening of the supply chain and shoring up of working capital via reduction in inventories, it is clear to me that the American consumer is not in good shape.
In separate, yet equally dismal news today, Business Montres reports today that the entire staff of Wyler Geneve has been dismissed (except for the CEO Ryan St. George) as the brand tries to survive the economic storm. Although Wyler makees what I believe to be some exceptional timepieces (although sometimes with very questionable marketing tactics a la the “fully carbon neutral” watch – puh-lease!) the brand is clearly in dire straits.

What do you think? Has the Swiss Watch industry’s decline hit bottom, or are there more difficult times ahead? Feel free to leave a comment below.
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